2025/03/26 by Godano, Cataldo, Convertito, Vincenzo, Tramelli, Anna +1
#Data Analysis #FOS: Physical sciences #Geophysics (physics.geo-ph) #Statistics and Probability (physics.data-an)
paper · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2503.20129
We investigate the relationship between the cumulative number of earthquakes and ground uplift at the Campi Flegrei caldera (South Italy) during the ongoing unrest (2005-present). While previous studies have explored this correlation, we propose a nonlinear epidemic model that captures new features of the caldera system. Our model describes earthquakes' occurrence as a cascading process driven by ground deformation. The nonlinearity reflects the reduced efficiency of the triggering mechanism, which contributes to the short duration of seismic swarms. This mechanism may represent a general framework for understanding the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes worldwide.