2007/07/04 by Marc Artzrouni, Artzrouni, Marc, Vivient Corneille Kamla +2
Mathematics · Medicine · Social Sciences · #62P10 #92Bxx #Applications (stat.AP) #FOS: Computer and information sciences #HIV, Drug Use, Sexual Risk #HIV/AIDS Research and Interventions #Sex work and related issues #msc:62P10 #msc:92Bxx #stat.AP
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.0707.0600
arxiv created 2007/07/04 · openalex publication_date 2007/07/04 · arxiv updated 2009/12/01 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
A two-sex Basic Reproduction Number (BRN) is used to investigate the conditions under which the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) may spread through heterosexual contacts in Sub-Saharan Africa. (The BRN is the expected number of new infections generated by one infected individual; the disease spreads if the BRN is larger than 1). A simple analytical expression for the BRN is derived on the basis of recent data on survival rates, transmission probabilities, and levels of sexual activity. Baseline results show that in the population at large (characterized by equal numbers of men and women) the BRN is larger than 1 if every year each person has 82 sexual contacts with different partners. the BRN is also larger than 1 for commercial sex workers (CSWs) and their clients (two populations of different sizes) if each CSW has about 256 clients per year and each client visits one CSW every two weeks. A sensitivity analysis explores the effect on the BRN of a doubling (or a halving) of the transmission probabilities. Implications and extensions are discussed.