Cross-Correlation of Photovoltaic Output Fluctuation in Power System Operation for Large-Scale Photovoltaic Integration

2013/08/30 by Yuichi Ikeda, Ikeda, Yuichi, Kazuhiko Ogimoto +1
Engineering · #Electric Power System Optimization #Energy Load and Power Forecasting #FOS: Electrical engineering #Smart Grid Energy Management #Systems and Control (eess.SY) #electronic engineering #information engineering

paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1308.6633

openalex publication_date 2013/08/30 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28

Abstract

We analyzed the cross-correlation of Photovoltaic (PV) output fluctuation for the actual PV output time series data in both the Tokyo area and the whole of Japan using the principal component analysis with the random matrix theory. Based on the obtained cross-correlation coefficients, the forecast error for PV output was estimated with/without considering the cross-correlations. Then operation schedule of thermal plants is calculated to integrate PV output using our unit commitment model with the estimated forecast error. The cost for grid integration of PV system was also estimated. Finally, validity of the concept of "local production for local consumption of renewable energy" and alternative policy implications were also discussed.

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