2020/04/07 by Sourendu Gupta, Gupta, Sourendu, Rohit Shankar +1
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Mathematics · Medicine · #COVID-19 Clinical Research Studies #COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts #COVID-19 epidemiological studies #FOS: Biological sciences #Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE)
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2004.04025
openalex publication_date 2020/04/07 · openalex created_date 2020/04/17 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
In India the COVID-19 infected population has not yet been accurately established. As always in the early stages of any epidemic, the need to test serious cases first has meant that the population with asymptomatic or mild sub-clinical symptoms has not yet been analyzed. Using counts of fatalities, and previously estimated parameters for the progress of the disease, we give statistical estimates of the infected population. The doubling time is a crucial unknown input parameter which affects these estimates, and may differ strongly from one geographical location to another. We suggest a method for estimating epidemiological parameters for COVID-19 in different locations within a few days, so adding to the information required for gauging the success of public health interventions