2016/12/09 by Shuai Sun, Sun, Shuai, Vikram K. Narayana +6 · 1 citation
Computer Science · Engineering · #Advancements in Semiconductor Devices and Circuit Design #Computer science #Electrical engineering #Electronics #Engineering #Figure of merit #Latency (audio) #Law #Moore's law #Neural Networks and Reservoir Computing #Pace #Photonics #Physics #Political science #Semiconductor materials and devices #Telecommunications #cs.ET
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1612.02898
published in arXiv (Cornell University) (Cornell University) · 10 pages, 2 figures
arxiv created 2016/12/09 · openalex publication_date 2016/12/09 · arxiv updated 2016/12/12 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
The inability of Moore's Law and other figure-of-merits (FOMs) to accurately explain the technology development of the semiconductor industry demands a holistic merit to guide the industry. Here we introduce a FOM termed CLEAR that accurately postdicts technology developments since the 1940's until today, and predicts photonics as a logical extension to keep-up the pace of information-handling machines. We show that CLEAR (Capability-to-Latency-Energy-Amount-Resistance) is multi-hierarchical applying to the device, interconnect, and system level. Being a holistic FOM, we show that empirical trends such as Moore's Law and the Makimoto's wave are special cases of the universal CLEAR merit. Looking ahead, photonic board- and chip-level technologies are able to continue the observed doubling rate of the CLEAR value every 12 months, while electronic technologies are unable to keep pace.