2020/02/09 by Steven Sanche, Yen Ting Lin, Sanche, Steven +10 · 77 citations
Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology · Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Mathematics · Medicine · #2019-20 coronavirus outbreak #Basic reproduction number #Biology #COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts #COVID-19 epidemiological studies #Computer science #Contact tracing #Coronavirus #Coronavirus Infections #Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) #Disease #Environmental health #Epidemic model #Epidemiology #FOS: Biological sciences #Geography #Incubation #Incubation period #Infectious disease (medical specialty) #Medicine #Outbreak #Pandemic #Population #Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE) #Quarantine #SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research #Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) #Telecommunications #Transmission (telecommunications) #Virology #q-bio.PE
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2002.03268
published in arXiv (Cornell University) (Cornell University) · 8 pages, 3 figures, 1 Supplementary Text, 6 Supplementary figures, 2 Supplementary tables
arxiv created 2020/02/09 · openalex publication_date 2020/02/09 · arxiv updated 2020/02/11 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/08
The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is a recently emerged human pathogen that has spread widely since January 2020. Initially, the basic reproductive number, R0, was estimated to be 2.2 to 2.7. Here we provide a new estimate of this quantity. We collected extensive individual case reports and estimated key epidemiology parameters, including the incubation period. Integrating these estimates and high-resolution real-time human travel and infection data with mathematical models, we estimated that the number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6. We further show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus.