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Simple tools for extrapolations of human mortality in rich countries

2002/04/14 by Dietrich Stauffer, Stauffer, Dietrich
Health Professions · Physics and Astronomy · Social Sciences · #Global Health Care Issues #Health disparities and outcomes #Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management #cond-mat.stat-mech

paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.cond-mat/0204306

Not only a contribution to the German federal elections; 5 pages incl.figs

arxiv created 2002/04/14 · arxiv updated 2009/11/30

Abstract

Suitable assumptions for the Gompertz mortality law take into account the break in the time development observed recently by Wilmoth et al. They show how a drastic reduction in the birth rate and improved living conditions lead to a drastic increase in the fraction of old people in the population, and how immigration of half a percent of the population per year can mostly stop this increase.

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