2018/10/29 by W. Jäger, Thomas Nägler, Jäger, Wiebke S. +5
Earth and Planetary Sciences · #Applications (stat.AP) #Coastal and Marine Dynamics #FOS: Computer and information sciences #Ocean Waves and Remote Sensing #Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1810.12389
openalex publication_date 2018/10/29 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
Statistically simulated time series of wave parameters are required for many\ncoastal and offshore engineering applications, often at the resolution of\napproximately one hour. Various studies have relied on autoregressive\nmoving-average (ARMA) processes to simulate synthetic series of wave parameters\nin a Monte Carlo sense. However, accurately representing inter-series\ndependencies has remained a challenge. In particular, the relationship between\nwave height and period statistics is complex, due to the limiting steepness\ncondition. Here, we present a new simulation method for joint time series of\nsignificant wave height, mean zero-crossing periods and a directional regime\nvariable. The latter distinguishes between northern and southwestern waves. The\nmethod rests on several model components which include renewal processes,\nFourier series with random coefficients, ARMA processes, copulas and\nregime-switching. A particular feature is a data-driven estimate for a wave\nheight-dependent limiting wave steepness condition which is used to facilitate\ncopulabased dependence modeling. The method was developed for and applied to a\ndata set in the Southern North Sea. For this site, the method could simulate\ntime series with realistic annual cycles and inter-annual variability. In the\ntime series data, the bivariate distribution of significant wave height and\nmean zero-crossing period was well represented. An influence of the directional\nregime on the bivariate distribution could also be modeled. However, the\ninfluence was not as strong in simulated data as in observed data. Finally,\nsimulated series captured duration and inter-arrival time of storm events well.\nPotential applications for output of the simulation method range from the\nassessment of coastal risks or design of coastal structures to the planning and\nbudgeting of offshore operations.\n