2025/12/19 by Jiwoo Song, Daning Huang, Song, Jiwoo +3
Computer Science · Physics and Astronomy · #Attractor #Chaotic #Diffusion map #Dynamical systems theory #Invariant (physics) #Kernel (algebra) #Kernel method #Micro and Nano Robotics #Model Reduction and Neural Networks #Neural Networks and Reservoir Computing #Operator (biology) #Range (aeronautics) #Ridge
paper · open access · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2512.17203
published in arXiv (Cornell University) (Cornell University)
openalex publication_date 2025/12/19 · openalex created_date 2025/12/23 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
In this work, we propose a simple kernel ridge regression (KRR) framework with a dynamic-aware validation strategy for long-term prediction of complex dynamical systems. By employing a data-driven kernel derived from diffusion maps, the proposed Diffusion Maps Kernel Ridge Regression (DM-KRR) method implicitly adapts to the intrinsic geometry of the system's invariant set, without requiring explicit manifold reconstruction or attractor modeling, procedures that often limit predictive performance. Across a broad range of systems, including smooth manifolds, chaotic attractors, and high-dimensional spatiotemporal flows, DM-KRR consistently outperforms state-of-the-art random feature, neural-network and operator-learning methods in both accuracy and data efficiency. These findings underscore that long-term predictive skill depends not only on model expressiveness, but critically on respecting the geometric constraints encoded in the data through dynamically consistent model selection. Together, simplicity, geometry awareness, and strong empirical performance point to a promising path for reliable and efficient learning of complex dynamical systems.