2026/04/16 by Agneta Kallström, Timo R. Stewart, P Jan +2 · 1 voice
Health Professions · Psychology · Social Sciences · #Health and Conflict Studies #Migration, Health and Trauma #Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
paper · pdf · doi:10.70483/kp.178447
Mortality figures for the Gaza war are exceptionally uncertain due to both methodological and political challenges. In this review article, we examine key problems related to measuring mortality in the conflict that began in October 2023. The analysis draws on statistics published by the Gaza Ministry of Health (MoH), independent studies, and selected media sources. The article does not produce new empirical mortality estimates; rather, it systematizes the methodological differences and interpretative limitations of existing assessments. The estimation of both direct mortality (immediate deaths resulting from violence) and indirect mortality (for example, deaths linked to disruptions in healthcare and malnutrition) has been severely complicated by the destruction of infrastructure, restricted access, population displacement, and biases in data collection. Two major assessments estimated direct mortality attributable to Israeli military operations at between 37,877 and 64,260 deaths between October 2023 and June 2024. A third assessment estimated a total of approximately 84,000 deaths in Gaza between October 2023 and January 2025, including both direct and indirect deaths. Independent estimates suggest that total mortality may exceed official figures and that civilians constitute a substantial proportion of the victims, although the precise distribution cannot be verified. The article also examines how uncertainty surrounding mortality figures is reflected in public debate in Israel and explores the political and interpretative frameworks through which casualty figures are understood. Systematic documentation of mortality is essential both for humanitarian planning and for the assessment of legal accountability.