2025/06/18 by Gillian Kay, Nick Dunstone, Doug Smith +4 · 1 voice · 6 citations
Environmental Science · Mathematics · #Baseline (sea) #Climate Change and Health Impacts #Climate Change and Sustainable Development #Climate variability and models #Climatology #Confidence interval #Environmental science #Geography #Geology #Mathematics #Meteorology #Oceanography #Statistics
paper · pdf · doi:10.1002/wea.7741
published in Weather 80(8), 268-276 (Wiley)
openalex publication_date 2025/06/18 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/26
Abstract The UK recorded its first exceedance of 40°C in July 2022. To assess the current chance of recurrence, we use a large climate model ensemble approach and find the 2023 return period to be 1‐in‐24 years (1/20–1/29 years confidence interval). However, the likelihood of 40°C has been accelerating and we estimate a 50–50 chance of another exceedance in the next 12 years, 4 years earlier than in a static 2023 climate. Far higher temperatures – over 45°C – and more sustained heatwaves may be possible today. Improved understanding of baseline exposure to temperature extremes could inform strategic heatwave preparation.