Evidence for complex fixed points in pandemic data

2020/08/31 by Giacomo Cacciapaglia, Francesco Sannino, Cacciapaglia, Giacomo +1
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Mathematics · Medicine · #COVID-19 epidemiological studies #Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis #FOS: Physical sciences #Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models #Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph) #Statistical Mechanics (cond-mat.stat-mech)

paper · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2009.08861

openalex publication_date 2020/08/31 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28

Abstract

Epidemic data show the existence of a region of quasi-linear growth (strolling period) of infected cases extending in between waves. We demonstrate that this constitutes evidence for the existence of near time-scale invariance that is neatly encoded via complex fixed points in the epidemic Renormalisation Group approach. As a result we achieve a deeper understanding of multiple wave dynamics and its inter-wave strolling regime. Our results are tested and calibrated against the COVID-19 pandemic data. Because of the simplicity of our approach that is organised around symmetry principles our discovery amounts to a paradigm shift in the way epidemiological data are mathematically modelled.

Citations

• The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak
• Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe

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