2025/08/11 by Nicolás Borchers Arriagada, Timothy B. Chaston, Geoffrey Morgan +2 · 1 voice
Environmental Science · Social Sciences · #Air Quality and Health Impacts #Environmental and Social Impact Assessments #Urban Transport and Accessibility
paper · doi:10.1016/j.envres.2025.122519
Background Fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) and nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) are associated with multiple health risks, including death. In Australia, the mortality burden attributable to PM 2.5 has been estimated, but there are no published estimates for NO 2 or the combined impacts of both pollutants. Objectives To estimate the mortality burden attributable to PM 2.5 and NO 2 from all anthropogenic sources and traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) in Australia. Methods We used previously published predictions for all source PM 2.5 and NO 2 and chemical transport model outputs to estimate TRAP-related concentrations. We estimated the attributable number of deaths by applying a life tables approach. We used publicly available population and mortality data together with effect estimates obtained from global meta-analyses, and incorporated recent recommendations for including single- and two-pollutant effect estimates into health impact assessment methods for air pollution. We did a series of sensitivity analyses to assess the influence of different modelling approaches and choices on our results. Results In 2015, an estimated 3684 (95 % CI, 3051–4350) premature deaths were attributable to air pollution from all sources, with 51 % (95 % CI, 19 %–86 %) linked to TRAP. Using mutually adjusted coefficients from two pollutant models and summing results did not appreciably change estimates derived from a single pollutant marker. Our results support PM 2.5 as a reliable marker for mortality impacts from diverse emission sources, and NO 2 as a robust marker for TRAP-related mortality in Australia. Sensitivity analyses including exposures below low-threshold cutoffs, using estimates for low pollution settings, and using location-specific threshold cutoffs for NO 2 , yielded higher mortality estimates. This suggests our results may be conservative. Conclusions Air pollution remains a significant contributor to mortality in Australia. Reducing exposure, particularly from TRAP, could yield substantial public health benefits. Policies promoting cleaner transport modes offer a promising avenue for rapid improvement.