2018/04/20 by Magnus Dahl, Dahl, Magnus, Adam Brun +3
Engineering · Environmental Science · #Integrated Energy Systems Optimization #Process Optimization and Integration #Environmental Impact and Sustainability
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1804.07557
Goals to reduce carbon emissions and changing electricity prices due to\nincreasing penetrations of wind power generation affect the planning and\noperation of district heating production systems. Through extensive\nmultivariate sensitivity analysis, this study estimates the robustness of\nfuture cost-optimal heat production systems under changing electricity prices,\nfuel cost and investment cost. Optimal production capacities are installed\nchoosing from a range of well-established production and storage technologies\nincluding boilers, combined heat and power (CHP) units, power-to-heat\ntechnologies and heat storages. The optimal heat production system is\ncharacterized in three different electricity pricing scenarios: Historical,\nwind power dominated and demand dominated. Coal CHP, large heat pumps and heat\nstorages dominate the optimal system if fossil fuels are allowed. Heat pumps\nand storages take over if fossil fuels are excluded. The capacity allocation\nbetween CHP and heat pumps is highly dependent on cost assumptions in the\nfossil fuel scenario, but the optimal capacities become much more robust if\nfossil fuels are not included. System cost becomes less robust in a fossil free\nscenario. If the electricity pricing is dominated by wind power generation or\nby the electricity demand, heat pumps become more favorable compared to\ncogeneration units. The need for heat storage more than doubles, if fossil\nfuels are not included, as the heating system becomes more closely coupled to\nthe electricity system.\n