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Beyond Confidence: Adaptive Abstention in Dual-Threshold Conformal Prediction for Autonomous System Perception

2025/02/11 by Divake Kumar, Nastaran Darabi, Kumar, Divake +5 · 2 citations
Computer Science · #Anomaly Detection Techniques and Applications #FOS: Computer and information sciences #Image and Signal Denoising Methods #Machine Learning (cs.LG) #Neural Networks and Applications #Robotics (cs.RO)

paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2502.07255

openalex publication_date 2025/02/11 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28

Abstract

Safety-critical perception systems require both reliable uncertainty quantification and principled abstention mechanisms to maintain safety under diverse operational conditions. We present a novel dual-threshold conformalization framework that provides statistically-guaranteed uncertainty estimates while enabling selective prediction in high-risk scenarios. Our approach uniquely combines a conformal threshold ensuring valid prediction sets with an abstention threshold optimized through ROC analysis, providing distribution-free coverage guarantees (>= 1 - alpha) while identifying unreliable predictions. Through comprehensive evaluation on CIFAR-100, ImageNet1K, and ModelNet40 datasets, we demonstrate superior robustness across camera and LiDAR modalities under varying environmental perturbations. The framework achieves exceptional detection performance (AUC: 0.993 to 0.995) under severe conditions while maintaining high coverage (>90.0%) and enabling adaptive abstention (13.5% to 63.4% +/- 0.5) as environmental severity increases. For LiDAR-based perception, our approach demonstrates particularly strong performance, maintaining robust coverage (>84.5%) while appropriately abstaining from unreliable predictions. Notably, the framework shows remarkable stability under heavy perturbations, with detection performance (AUC: 0.995 +/- 0.001) significantly outperforming existing methods across all modalities. Our unified approach bridges the gap between theoretical guarantees and practical deployment needs, offering a robust solution for safety-critical autonomous systems operating in challenging real-world conditions.

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