2014/06/29 by K. C. Olson, Olson, Kenneth, Kathryn Blackmond Laskey +4
Decision Sciences · Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Mathematics · #FOS: Computer and information sciences #Forecasting Techniques and Applications #Social and Information Networks (cs.SI) #Sports Analytics and Performance #Statistics Education and Methodologies #Stock Market Forecasting Methods
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1406.7584
openalex publication_date 2014/06/29 · openalex created_date 2022/08/28 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
In an online prediction market, forecasters who could not see the current\nstate of the market until they made their own separate estimates moved their\nestimates closer to the market forecast when the current state of the market\nbecame known. Their first edits to the market forecast were very similar to the\nfirst edits of forecasters who could always see the current state of the\nmarket, and forecasters in both conditions had similar accuracy. These results\nsuggest that our more elaborate forecast elicitation method might not improve\nforecasts and that any anchoring on the state of the market does not constitute\nan error in judgment.\n