An iterated block particle filter for inference on coupled dynamic systems with shared and unit-specific parameters

2022/06/08 by Ionides, Edward L., Ning, Ning, Wheeler, Jesse
#FOS: Computer and information sciences #Methodology (stat.ME)

paper · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2206.03837

Abstract

We consider inference for a collection of partially observed, stochastic, interacting, nonlinear dynamic processes. Each process is identified with a label called its unit, and our primary motivation arises in biological metapopulation systems where a unit corresponds to a spatially distinct sub-population. Metapopulation systems are characterized by strong dependence through time within a single unit and relatively weak interactions between units, and these properties make block particle filters an effective tool for simulation-based likelihood evaluation. Iterated filtering algorithms can facilitate likelihood maximization for simulation-based filters. We introduce an iterated block particle filter applicable when parameters are unit-specific or shared between units. We demonstrate this algorithm by performing inference on a coupled epidemiological model describing spatiotemporal measles case report data for twenty towns.

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