2023/06/06 by Yunfei Luo, Luo, Yunfei, Zhangqi Duan +1
Decision Sciences · Economics, Econometrics and Finance · #Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis #FOS: Computer and information sciences #Financial Markets and Investment Strategies #Machine Learning (cs.LG) #Stock Market Forecasting Methods
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2306.03985
openalex publication_date 2023/06/06 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
Stock trading is one of the popular ways for financial management. However, the market and the environment of economy is unstable and usually not predictable. Furthermore, engaging in stock trading requires time and effort to analyze, create strategies, and make decisions. It would be convenient and effective if an agent could assist or even do the task of analyzing and modeling the past data and then generate a strategy for autonomous trading. Recently, reinforcement learning has been shown to be robust in various tasks that involve achieving a goal with a decision making strategy based on time-series data. In this project, we have developed a pipeline that simulates the stock trading environment and have trained an agent to automate the stock trading process with deep reinforcement learning methods, including deep Q-learning, deep SARSA, and the policy gradient method. We evaluate our platform during relatively good (before 2021) and bad (2021 - 2022) situations. The stocks we've evaluated on including Google, Apple, Tesla, Meta, Microsoft, and IBM. These stocks are among the popular ones, and the changes in trends are representative in terms of having good and bad situations. We showed that before 2021, the three reinforcement methods we have tried always provide promising profit returns with total annual rates around 70% to 90%, while maintain a positive profit return after 2021 with total annual rates around 2% to 7%.