2024/06/05 by Martin Outzen Berild, Berild, Martin Outzen, Geir‐Arne Fuglstad +1 · 1 citation
Environmental Science · #Soil Geostatistics and Mapping
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2406.03400
We construct flexible spatio-temporal models through stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) where both diffusion and advection can be spatially varying. Computations are done through a Gaussian Markov random field approximation of the solution of the SPDE, which is constructed through a finite volume method. The new flexible non-separable model is compared to a flexible separable model both for reconstruction and forecasting, and evaluated in terms of root mean square errors and continuous rank probability scores. A simulation study demonstrates that the non-separable model performs better when the data is simulated from a non-separable model with diffusion and advection. Further, we estimate surrogate models for emulating the output of a ocean model in Trondheimsfjorden, Norway, and simulate observations of autonomous underwater vehicles. The results show that the flexible non-separable model outperforms the flexible separable model for real-time prediction of unobserved locations.