2002/12/17 by Germano D’Abramo, Germano D'Abramo, D'Abramo, Germano
Computer Science · Earth and Planetary Sciences · Physics and Astronomy · #Astro and Planetary Science #FOS: Physical sciences #General Physics (physics.gen-ph) #Seismology and Earthquake Studies #Space Physics (physics.space-ph) #earthquake and tectonic studies #physics.gen-ph #physics.space-ph
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.physics/0212058
9 pages, 1 figure, IASF-CNR Internal Report n. 1, 2002. Minor corrections
openalex publication_date 2002/12/17 · arxiv created 2003/03/21 · arxiv updated 2009/12/01 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
In this paper we define the a posteriori probability W. This quantity is introduced with the aim of suggesting a reliable interpretation of the actual threat posed by a newly discovered Near Earth Asteroid (NEA), for which impacting orbital solutions (now commonly known as Virtual Impactors or VIs) can not be excluded on the basis of the available astrometric observations. The probability W is strictly related to the so-called background impact probability (that extrapolated through a statistical analysis from close encounters of the known NEA population) and to the annual frequency with which the impact monitoring systems (currently NEODyS-CLOMON at University of Pisa and SENTRY at NASA-JPL) find VIs among newly discovered asteroids. Of W we also provide a conservative estimate, which turns out to be of nearly the same order of the background impact probability. This eventually says to us what we already know: the fact that nowadays monitoring systems frequently find VIs among newly discovered asteroids does not make NEAs more threatening than they have ever been.