The Role of Expert Judgment in Statistical Inference and Evidence-Based Decision-Making

2019/03/20 by Naomi C. Brownstein, Thomas A. Louis, Anthony O’Hagan +1 · 72 citations
Decision Sciences · Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Mathematics · Psychology · #Artificial intelligence #Bayesian inference #Bayesian probability #Bayesian statistics #Computer science #Conceptualization #Data science #Economics #Epistemology #Fiducial inference #Frequentist inference #Health Systems, Economic Evaluations, Quality of Life #Inference #Management science #Mathematics #Meta-analysis and systematic reviews #Perspective (graphical) #Psychology #Statement (logic) #Statistical Methods in Clinical Trials #Statistical inference #Statistics

paper · pdf · doi:10.1080/00031305.2018.1529623

published in The American Statistician 73(sup1), 56-68 (Taylor & Francis)

openalex publication_date 2019/03/20 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/01

Abstract

This article resulted from our participation in the session on the "role of expert opinion and judgment in statistical inference" at the October 2017 ASA Symposium on Statistical Inference. We present a strong, unified statement on roles of expert judgment in statistics with processes for obtaining input, whether from a Bayesian or frequentist perspective. Topics include the role of subjectivity in the cycle of scientific inference and decisions, followed by a clinical trial and a greenhouse gas emissions case study that illustrate the role of judgments and the importance of basing them on objective information and a comprehensive uncertainty assessment. We close with a call for increased proactivity and involvement of statisticians in study conceptualization, design, conduct, analysis, and communication.

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Related

• Perspective from the Literature on the Role of Expert Judgment in Scientific and Statistical Research and Practice
• Expert Judgment and Communication of Uncertainty
• Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities
• Decisions, decisions, decisions in an uncertain environment
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