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Polynomial-Time Relational Probabilistic Inference in Open Universes

2025/05/07 by L. Ge, Ge, Luise, Brendan Juba +3
Computer Science · #Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI) #Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference #Constraint Satisfaction and Optimization #FOS: Computer and information sciences #Logic, Reasoning, and Knowledge

paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2505.04115

openalex publication_date 2025/05/07 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28

Abstract

Reasoning under uncertainty is a fundamental challenge in Artificial Intelligence. As with most of these challenges, there is a harsh dilemma between the expressive power of the language used, and the tractability of the computational problem posed by reasoning. Inspired by human reasoning, we introduce a method of first-order relational probabilistic inference that satisfies both criteria, and can handle hybrid (discrete and continuous) variables. Specifically, we extend sum-of-squares logic of expectation to relational settings, demonstrating that lifted reasoning in the bounded-degree fragment for knowledge bases of bounded quantifier rank can be performed in polynomial time, even with an a priori unknown and/or countably infinite set of objects. Crucially, our notion of tractability is framed in proof-theoretic terms, which extends beyond the syntactic properties of the language or queries. We are able to derive the tightest bounds provable by proofs of a given degree and size and establish completeness in our sum-of-squares refutations for fixed degrees.

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