Advances in the Subseasonal Prediction of Extreme Events: Relevant Case Studies across the Globe

2022/03/03 by Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Christopher J. White, Hilla Afargan‐Gerstman +48 · 114 citations
Earth and Planetary Sciences · Environmental Science · Mathematics · #Black swan theory #Climate change #Climate variability and models #Climatology #Computer science #Environmental science #Extratropical cyclone #Extreme Cold #Extreme weather #Geography #Geology #Mathematics #Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations #Meteorology #Precipitation #Predictability #Preparedness #Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research #Tropical cyclone #Warning system

paper · open access · doi:10.1175/bams-d-20-0221.1

published in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 103(6), E1473-E1501 (American Meteorological Society)

openalex publication_date 2022/03/03 · openalex created_date 2022/03/05 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/04

Abstract

Abstract Extreme weather events have devastating impacts on human health, economic activities, ecosystems, and infrastructure. It is therefore crucial to anticipate extremes and their impacts to allow for preparedness and emergency measures. There is indeed potential for probabilistic subseasonal prediction on time scales of several weeks for many extreme events. Here we provide an overview of subseasonal predictability for case studies of some of the most prominent extreme events across the globe using the ECMWF S2S prediction system: heatwaves, cold spells, heavy precipitation events, and tropical and extratropical cyclones. The considered heatwaves exhibit predictability on time scales of 3–4 weeks, while this time scale is 2–3 weeks for cold spells. Precipitation extremes are the least predictable among the considered case studies. ­Tropical cyclones, on the other hand, can exhibit probabilistic predictability on time scales of up to 3 weeks, which in the presented cases was aided by remote precursors such as the Madden–Julian oscillation. For extratropical cyclones, lead times are found to be shorter. These case studies clearly illustrate the potential for event-dependent advance warnings for a wide range of extreme events. The subseasonal predictability of extreme events demonstrated here allows for an extension of warning horizons, provides advance information to impact modelers, and informs communities and stakeholders affected by the impacts of extreme weather events.

Citations

• The International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS)
• Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part II: Projected Response to Anthropogenic Warming

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