Risk spillovers between the BRICS and the U.S. staple grain futures markets

2024/12/20 by Ying-Hui Shao, Shao, Ying-Hui, Yan-Hong Yang +3
Business, Management and Accounting · Economics, Econometrics and Finance · #FOS: Economics and business #Global Trade and Competitiveness #Global trade and economics #Market Dynamics and Volatility #Risk Management (q-fin.RM)

paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2412.15738

openalex publication_date 2024/12/20 · openalex created_date 2024/12/24 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28

Abstract

This study examines contemporaneous and lagged spillover effects in BRICS staple grain futures markets and their linkages with U.S. markets. The results show that contemporaneous spillovers dominate, while net spillovers are driven by lagged connectedness. Systemic risk is lower in intra-BRICS markets compared to those including the U.S., highlighting the U.S. grain market's significant influence. Brazilian and U.S. grains are key net spillover contributors, excluding U.S. rice, while South African staple grains act as major net receivers. Particularly, the spillover between soybeans is the strongest. The study also reveals heterogeneous impacts of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Black Sea Grain Initiative on grain futures.

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