A penalty criterion for score forecasting in soccer

2018/06/05 by Jean‐Louis Foulley, Jean-Louis Foulley, Foulley, Jean-Louis +2
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Environmental Science · Mathematics · #Applications (stat.AP) #FOS: Computer and information sciences #Forest ecology and management #Sports Analytics and Performance #Statistics Education and Methodologies #stat.AP

paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1806.01595

6 pages

arxiv created 2018/06/05 · openalex publication_date 2018/06/05 · arxiv updated 2018/06/06 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28

Abstract

This note proposes a penalty criterion for assessing correct score forecasting in a soccer match. The penalty is based on hierarchical priorities for such a forecast i.e., i) Win, Draw and Loss exact prediction and ii) normalized Euclidian distance between actual and forecast scores. The procedure is illustrated on typical scores, and different alternatives on the penalty components are discussed.

Citations

• Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation
• A simple Bayesian procedure for forecasting the outcomes of the UEFA Champions League matches

Related

• Evaluating probabilistic forecasts of football matches: The case against the Ranked Probability Score
• Identification of relevant performance indicators in round-robin tournaments
• More on verification of probability forecasts for football outcomes: score decompositions, reliability, and discrimination analyses
• A time-dependent scoring system for soccer leagues
• From identification of random contributions to determination of the optimum forecast of a soccer match