2023/05/31 by Ilias Chronopoulos, Katerina Chrysikou, Chronopoulos, Ilias +7 · 2 citations
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Mathematics · #COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts #COVID-19 epidemiological studies #Econometrics (econ.EM) #FOS: Economics and business
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2305.19921
openalex publication_date 2023/05/31 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
In this paper we study neural networks and their approximating power in panel data models. We provide asymptotic guarantees on deep feed-forward neural network estimation of the conditional mean, building on the work of Farrell et al. (2021), and explore latent patterns in the cross-section. We use the proposed estimators to forecast the progression of new COVID-19 cases across the G7 countries during the pandemic. We find significant forecasting gains over both linear panel and nonlinear time series models. Containment or lockdown policies, as instigated at the national-level by governments, are found to have out-of-sample predictive power for new COVID-19 cases. We illustrate how the use of partial derivatives can help open the "black-box" of neural networks and facilitate semi-structural analysis: school and workplace closures are found to have been effective policies at restricting the progression of the pandemic across the G7 countries. But our methods illustrate significant heterogeneity and time-variation in the effectiveness of specific containment policies.