Choosing a growth curve to model the Covid-19 outbreak

2020/07/07 by Emiro A. Molina-Cuevas, Molina-Cuevas, Emiro A.
Agricultural and Biological Sciences · Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Mathematics · #62P10 #Agricultural risk and resilience #COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts #COVID-19 epidemiological studies #FOS: Biological sciences #G.3 #Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE)

paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2007.03779

openalex publication_date 2020/07/07 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28

Abstract

The Richards family models comprise a well-known set of models with useful parameters to describe several aspects of disease outbreaks. Some of these models have been used to study the current Covid-19 pandemic. However, there seems to be confusion regarding the discrimination among competing models. In this paper a detailed application of Akaikes information approach is used to discern among models using data from The European Union, The United States and The United Kingdom. We argue that the epidemiological characteristics derived from competing models should be examined to complement the selection strategy, and the implicit properties of the models contrasted with the available data. Detailed analytical expressions of the epidemiological characteristics implied by the selected parametrizations are also offered.

Citations

• Serial interval of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections
• Prediction and analysis of Coronavirus Disease 2019

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