A polynomial regression model for excess mortality in Mexico 2020-2022 due to the COVID-19 pandemic

2023/11/27 by Comas-García, Andreu, Erdely, Arturo
#62P10 #Applications (stat.AP) #FOS: Computer and information sciences

paper · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2311.15483

Abstract

Based on the comprehensive national death registry of Mexico spanning from 1998 to 2022 a point and interval estimation method for the excess mortality in Mexico during the years 2020-2022 is proposed based on illness-induced deaths only, using a polynomial regression model. The results obtained estimate that the excess mortality is around 788,000 people (39.3%) equivalently to a rate of 626 per 100,000 inhabitants. The male/female ratio is estimated to be 1.7 times. As a reference for comparison, for the whole period 2020-2020 Mexico's INEGI estimated an excess of mortality between 673,000 with a quasi-Poisson model and 808,000 using endemic channels estimation.

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