2026/03/04 by Decker Eveleth, Jeffrey Lewis · 1 voice
Social Sciences · #Ballistic missile #Incentive #International Relations and Foreign Policy #Korean Peninsula Historical and Political Studies #Margin (machine learning) #Missile #Nuclear Issues and Defense #Peninsula #Principal (computer security) #Software deployment #Survivability
paper · doi:10.1080/00396338.2026.2647643
openalex publication_date 2026/03/04 · openalex created_date 2026/03/28 · openalex updated_date 2026/06/13
By placing more than 300 fixed, short-range surface-to-surface ballistic missiles on permanent alert at several above-ground sites close to the Demilitarised Zone, South Korean Strategic Command has significantly departed from standard practice and apparently traded survivability for immediacy. The sites are clustered, exposed and soft, the launchers are not mobile and the missiles are highly accurate, carrying a shaped charge capable of penetrating 1.5 metres of concrete. Based on visual analysis, little or no effort has been expended to make the launch sites survivable in a conflict involving nuclear weapons. These characteristics suggest that the missiles’ principal value lies in how quickly they can deliver a pre-emptive strike on North Korean military and leadership targets. They introduce significant instability to the Korean Peninsula by giving both South Korea and North Korea strong incentives to attack first in a crisis.