US labor market conditions and migration: a reassessment of Bahar (2025)

2025/12/24 by Rodriguez, Francisco, Bravo, Giancarlo
#Econometrics (econ.EM) #FOS: Economics and business

paper · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2512.21429

Abstract

Bahar (2025) argues that there is a long-term cointegrating relationship between US job vacancies and southwest border crossings. We show that this conclusion is based on a misspecified Engle-Granger test applied to first differences. Once the Engle-Granger test is correctly applied to levels, evidence for a cointegrating relationship vanishes, invalidating the paper's approach to estimating short- and long-run elasticities. Bahar's approach is therefore uninformative about the relationship between US labor market conditions and migration.

Citations

• Why Bahar and Hausmann Tell Us Nothing About Venezuelan Migration Flows to the United States
• Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing

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