Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course
2024/02/09 by René M. van Westen, Michael Kliphuis, Henk A. Dijkstra · 3 voices · 80 citations
Environmental Science · Earth and Planetary Sciences · #Ecosystem dynamics and resilience #Climate variability and models #Earth Systems and Cosmic Evolution
paper · pdf · doi:10.1126/sciadv.adk1189
Abstract
One of the most prominent climate tipping elements is the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), which can potentially collapse because of the input of fresh water in the North Atlantic. Although AMOC collapses have been induced in complex global climate models by strong freshwater forcing, the processes of an AMOC tipping event have so far not been investigated. Here, we show results of the first tipping event in the Community Earth System Model, including the large climate impacts of the collapse. Using these results, we develop a physics-based and observable early warning signal of AMOC tipping: the minimum of the AMOC-induced freshwater transport at the southern boundary of the Atlantic. Reanalysis products indicate that the present-day AMOC is on route to tipping. The early warning signal is a useful alternative to classical statistical ones, which, when applied to our simulated tipping event, turn out to be sensitive to the analyzed time interval before tipping.
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- Atlantic Ocean thermal forcing of Central American rainfall over 140,000 years. [europepmc]
- A pause in the weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation since the early 2010s. [europepmc]
- Discovery of Laacher See eruption in speleothem record synchronizes Greenland and central European Late Glacial climate change. [europepmc]
- Land system changes of terrestrial tipping elements on Earth under global climate pledges: 2000-2100. [europepmc]
- Continued Atlantic overturning circulation even under climate extremes. [europepmc]
- Simulated millennial-scale climate variability driven by a convection-advection oscillator. [europepmc]
- Emergence of an oceanic CO 2 uptake hole under global warming. [europepmc]
- The Forest After Tomorrow: Projecting the Impact of a Collapsing Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation on European Tree-Species Distributions. [europepmc]
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- Connecting complex and simplified models of tipping elements: a nonlinear two-forcing emulator for the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. [europepmc]
- Noise-induced tipping of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under climate mitigation scenarios. [europepmc]
- Bioethics, climate change, and civilization. [europepmc]
- Abrupt Gulf Stream path changes are a precursor to a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. [europepmc]
- Mapping tipping risks from Antarctic ice basins under global warming. [europepmc]
- Observational constraints project a ~50% AMOC weakening by the end of this century. [europepmc]
- The effects of a constructed closure of the Bering Strait on AMOC tipping behavior. [europepmc]
- Co-ordinated shifts in deep-water formation and Gulf Stream migration during abrupt climate changes. [europepmc]
- Limited impact of Greenland meltwater on abruptness and reversibility of future Atlantic overturning changes. [europepmc]
- The effect of freshwater biases on AMOC stability across the model complexity spectrum [europepmc]
- Monthly-Resolved Cave Proxy Evidence for Northward Gulf Stream Migration During the Little Ice Age [europepmc]
Discussions
- New study suggests the Atlantic overturning circulation AMOC “is on tipping course” [lemmy, 61 points, 2 comments]
- Ich hab die Studie gefunden. Da steht nicht drin, dass es in Europa generell 30 °C kälter wird. Aber dass die Winter in einigen sehr weit nördlichen Regionen (z.B. Bergen) bis zu 30 °C kälter werden k [bsky, 1 points, 1 comments]
- * Van Westen, Rene, et al. “Physics-Based Early Warning Signal Shows That AMOC Is on Tipping Course.” Science Advances, vol. 10, no. 6, 9 Feb. 2024, doi.org/10.1126/scia.... [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]
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