Imprecision in Martingale-Theoretic Prequential Randomness

2023/04/25 by Floris Persiau, Persiau, Floris, Gert de Cooman +1
Arts and Humanities · Computer Science · Mathematics · #Benford’s Law and Fraud Detection #Computability, Logic, AI Algorithms #FOS: Mathematics #Philosophy and History of Science #Probability (math.PR)

paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2304.12741

openalex publication_date 2023/04/25 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/01

Abstract

In a prequential approach to algorithmic randomness, probabilities for the next outcome can be forecast `on the fly' without the need for fully specifying a probability measure on all possible sequences of outcomes, as is the case in the more standard approach. We take the first steps in allowing for probability intervals instead of precise probabilities in this prequential approach, based on ideas from our earlier imprecise-probabilistic and martingale-theoretic account of algorithmic randomness. We define what it means for an infinite sequence (I₁,x₁,I₂,x₂,…) of successive interval forecasts I_k and subsequent binary outcomes x_k to be random. We compare the resulting prequential randomness notion with the more standard one, and investigate where both randomness notions coincide, as well as where their properties correspond.

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