2025/06/29 by Francesco Ravazzolo, Ravazzolo, Francesco, Luca Rossini +3
Energy · Engineering · #Econometrics (econ.EM) #Electric Power System Optimization #FOS: Economics and business #Global Energy Security and Policy #Integrated Energy Systems Optimization
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2506.23289
openalex publication_date 2025/06/29 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
This paper introduces a novel Bayesian reverse unrestricted mixed-frequency model applied to a panel of nine European electricity markets. Our model analyzes the impact of daily fossil fuel prices and hourly renewable energy generation on hourly electricity prices, employing a hierarchical structure to capture cross-country interdependencies and idiosyncratic factors. The inclusion of random effects demonstrates that electricity market integration both mitigates and amplifies shocks. Our results highlight that while renewable energy sources consistently reduce electricity prices across all countries, gas prices remain a dominant driver of cross-country electricity price disparities and instability. This finding underscores the critical importance of energy diversification, above all on renewable energy sources, and coordinated fossil fuel supply strategies for bolstering European energy security.