2025/07/24 by Osterhuber, Moritz
#Croatia #Serbia #democratic institutions #democratisation #nationalism #political culture #societal value system #state identity
paper · doi:10.82191/lseidr.41
Why did democratisation outcomes differ in Croatia and Serbia despite similar legacies of authoritarian rule, ethnic war, and a comparable set of democratic institutions? Whereas Croatia became an EU member as a consolidated democracy in 2014, Serbia grappled with illiberalism and political violence. In a most similar systems designed (MSSD) framework and based on longitudinal survey data, this paper argues that differences in civil society, state identity, and nationalism gave rise to distinct political cultures and value systems that shaped democratisation outcomes. Serbia experienced more pronounced ethnic nationalism, state identity did not align with Europeanisation, and civil society was unable to act as interest aggregator and constructive counterweight to government. Croatia, on the other hand, earned the trust of powerful international sponsors, fostered civic nationalism, and managed to contain opposition to proceedings of the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY). Theoretically, the key contributions are the operationalization of a participatory notion of democracy as well as the application and adaptation of democratisation theory to the idiosyncrasies of the former Yugoslavia. Moreover, in emphasizing the significance of the democratic consolidation process beyond fundamental elements like voting and representation, the findings suggest that the EU needs more than a checklist of institutional requisites for a successful neighbourhood policy and potential enlargement in the Southeast.