2016/09/15 by Damien Challet, Challet, Damien, Rémy Chicheportiche +5 · 2 citations
Decision Sciences · Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Physics and Astronomy · #Complex Network Analysis Techniques #Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis #FOS: Economics and business #FOS: Physical sciences #Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph) #Stock Market Forecasting Methods #Trading and Market Microstructure (q-fin.TR)
paper · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1609.04640
openalex publication_date 2016/09/15 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
We introduce a method to infer lead-lag networks of agents' actions in complex systems. These networks open the way to both microscopic and macroscopic states prediction in such systems. We apply this method to trader-resolved data in the foreign exchange market. We show that these networks are remarkably persistent, which explains why and how order flow prediction is possible from trader-resolved data. In addition, if traders' actions depend on past prices, the evolution of the average price paid by traders may also be predictable. Using random forests, we verify that the predictability of both the sign of order flow and the direction of average transaction price is strong for retail investors at an hourly time scale, which is of great relevance to brokers and order matching engines. Finally, we argue that the existence of trader lead-lag networks explains in a self-referential way why a given trader becomes active, which is in line with the fact that most trading activity has an endogenous origin.