2011/04/01 by Michael Chertkov, Chertkov, Michael, Михаил Степанов +5 · 1 citation
Engineering · #Energy Load and Power Forecasting
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1104.0183
In this manuscript we continue the thread of [M. Chertkov, F. Pan, M.\nStepanov, Predicting Failures in Power Grids: The Case of Static Overloads,\nIEEE Smart Grid 2011] and suggest a new algorithm discovering most probable\nextreme stochastic events in static power grids associated with intermittent\ngeneration of wind turbines. The algorithm becomes EXACT and EFFICIENT\n(polynomial) in the case of the proportional (or other low parametric) control\nof standard generation, and log-concave probability distribution of the\nrenewable generation, assumed known from the wind forecast. We illustrate the\nalgorithm's ability to discover problematic extreme events on the example of\nthe IEEE RTS-96 model of transmission with additions of 10%, 20% and 30% of\nrenewable generation. We observe that the probability of failure may grow but\nit may also decrease with increase in renewable penetration, if the latter is\nsufficiently diversified and distributed.\n