Transitions between Metastable States in a Simplified Model for the\n Thermohaline Circulation under Random Fluctuations

2019/04/23 by Daniel Tesfay, Tesfay, Daniel, Pingyuan Wei +7 · 1 citation
Physics and Astronomy · #Advanced Thermodynamics and Statistical Mechanics #Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics (physics.ao-ph) #FOS: Physical sciences #Statistical Mechanics and Entropy #stochastic dynamics and bifurcation

paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1904.11582

openalex publication_date 2019/04/23 · openalex created_date 2022/07/24 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28

Abstract

In this work, we study the impact of non-Gaussian alpha-stable Levy motion on\ntransitions between metastable equilibrium states (or attractors) in a\nstochastic Stommel two-box model for thermohaline circulation (THC). By\nmaximizing the probability density of the solution process associated with a\nnonlocal Fokker-Planck equation, we compute maximal likely pathways and\nidentify corresponding maximal likely stable equilibrium states. Our numerical\nresults indicate weakened THC may be induced by perturbation with very small\nnoise intensity in a certain range of stability index. Moreover, larger noise\nintensity and larger stability index induce weakened THC within shorter\nbifurcation time.\n

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