2014/01/09 by Anselmo García Cantú Ros, Till Fluschnik, Ros, Anselmo García Cantú +2
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Environmental Science · #Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems (nlin.AO) #Animal Ecology and Behavior Studies #Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis #Ecosystem dynamics and resilience #FOS: Physical sciences
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1401.2034
openalex publication_date 2014/01/09 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
A variety of real world and experimental systems can display a drastic regime shift, as the evolution in one its paramaters crosses a threshold value. Assimilation of such a transition with a bifurcation has allowed to identify so called "early warning signals", at the level of the time series generated by the system underscope. The literature in early warning detection methods is currently expanding and their potential for practical applicability is being discussed in different contexts. In this work, we elaborate on the use of the variance of a system variable, which constitutes the simplest early warning indicator, to gain control on the long-term dynamics of the system, while extending an exploitation phase. In particular, we address the cases of the cusp and Hopf normal forms, as prototypical examples of bistability and oscillations. Our results provide insights on the interplay between the time-scale for the system observation, the degree of sensitivity of the control feedback and the intensity of the random perturbations, in shaping the long-term control efficiency.