2017/12/16 by Zsolt Vizi, Vizi, Zsolt, István Z. Kiss +5
Mathematics · Medicine · Physics and Astronomy · #90B10 #90B15 #92D30 #COVID-19 epidemiological studies #Complex Network Analysis Techniques #FOS: Biological sciences #Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models #Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE)
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1712.06026
openalex publication_date 2017/12/16 · openalex created_date 2022/10/02 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
For a recently derived pairwise model of network epidemics with non-Markovian\nrecovery, we prove that under some mild technical conditions on the\ndistribution of the infectious periods, smaller variance in the recovery time\nleads to higher reproduction number, and consequently to a larger epidemic\noutbreak, when the mean infectious period is fixed. We discuss how this result\nis related to various stochastic orderings of the distributions of infectious\nperiods. The results are illustrated by a number of explicit stochastic\nsimulations, suggesting that their validity goes beyond regular networks.\n