2025/05/26 by Tomás Caraballo, Caraballo, Tomás, Francisco Morillas +3
Social Sciences · Mathematics · #Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management #COVID-19 epidemiological studies
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2505.19835
This work proposes a method for modeling and forecasting mortality rates. It constitutes an improvement over previous studies by incorporating both the historical evolution of the mortality phenomenon and its random behavior. In the first part, we introduce the model and analyze mathematical properties such as the existence of solutions and their asymptotic behavior. In the second part, we apply this model to forecast mortality rates in Spain, showing that it yields better results than classical methods.