Bounds On Treatment Effects On Transitions

2017/09/26 by Johan Vikström, Geert Ridder, Vikström, Johan +3
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Mathematics · #Advanced Causal Inference Techniques #Econometrics (econ.EM) #FOS: Economics and business #Health Systems, Economic Evaluations, Quality of Life #Healthcare Policy and Management

paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1709.08981

openalex publication_date 2017/09/26 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28

Abstract

This paper considers the identification of treatment effects on conditional transition probabilities. We show that even under random assignment only the instantaneous average treatment effect is point identified. Since treated and control units drop out at different rates, randomization only ensures the comparability of treatment and controls at the time of randomization, so that long-run average treatment effects are not point identified. Instead we derive informative bounds on these average treatment effects. Our bounds do not impose (semi)parametric restrictions, for example, proportional hazards. We also explore various assumptions such as monotone treatment response, common shocks and positively correlated outcomes that tighten the bounds.

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