A reproduction rate which perfectly fits Covid-19

2020/05/27 by Christoph Bandt, Bandt, Christoph
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Mathematics · #92C60 92D30 60J80 #COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts #COVID-19 epidemiological studies #FOS: Biological sciences #Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE) #Quantitative Methods (q-bio.QM)

paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2006.02342

openalex publication_date 2020/05/27 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28

Abstract

We present a simple technique to compare the development of the Covid-19 epidemic in different regions, based only on the time series of confirmed cases. Weekly new infections, taken for every day, are interpreted as infection potential of Covid-19. We derive a robust time-varying reproduction rate for the infection potential, including asymptomatic cases, which does not depend on death rate or testing intensity. It requires few assumptions and shows a more plausible time course than official reproduction rates in several countries.

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