2020/09/01 by Matthias Kreck, Erhard Scholz, Kreck, Matthias +1 · 1 citation
Mathematics · Medicine · #COVID-19 epidemiological studies #FOS: Biological sciences #Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE) #Quantitative Methods (q-bio.QM) #SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research #Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2009.00308
openalex publication_date 2020/09/01 · openalex created_date 2020/09/21 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
This is work in progress. We make it accessible hoping that people might find the idea useful. We propose a discrete, recursive 5-compartment model for the spread of epidemics, which we call \em SEPIR-model. Under mild assumptions which typically are fulfilled for the Covid-19 pandemic it can be used to reproduce the development of an epidemic from a small number of parameters closely related to the data. We demonstrate this at the development in Germany and Switzerland. It also allows model predictions assuming nearly constant reproduction numbers. Thus it might be a useful tool for shedding light on which interventions might be most effective in the future. In future work we will discuss other aspects of the model and more countries.