2023/12/15 by Albert Cohen, Cohen, Albert, Jimmy Risk +1
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · #Applications (stat.AP) #Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis #Computational Finance (q-fin.CP) #FOS: Computer and information sciences #FOS: Economics and business #FOS: Physical sciences #Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph) #Pricing of Securities (q-fin.PR) #Sports Analytics and Performance
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2312.16179
openalex publication_date 2023/12/15 · openalex created_date 2023/12/30 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
This paper presents a new framework for player valuation in European football, by fusing principles from financial mathematics and network theory. The valuation model leverages a "passing matrix" to encapsulate player interactions on the field, utilizing centrality measures to quantify individual influence. Unlike traditional approaches, such as regressing on past performance-salary data, this model focuses on in-game performance as a player's contributions evolve over time. Consequently, our model provides a dynamic and individualized framework for ascertaining a player's fair market value. The methodology is empirically validated through a case study in European football, employing real-world match and financial data. This cross-disciplinary mechanism for player valuation adapts the effect of connecting pay with performance, first seen in Scully (1974), to include in-game contributions as well as expected present valuation of stochastic variables.