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Portfolio Optimization in a Market with Hidden Gaussian Drift and Randomly Arriving Expert Opinions: Modeling and Theoretical Results

2023/08/03 by Abdelali Gabih, Gabih, Abdelali, Ralf Wunderlich +1
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Engineering · #49L20 #60G35 #91G10 #93E11 #93E20 #Electric Power System Optimization #FOS: Economics and business #Portfolio Management (q-fin.PM) #Reservoir Engineering and Simulation Methods #Stochastic processes and financial applications

paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2308.02049

openalex publication_date 2023/08/03 · openalex created_date 2023/08/08 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28

Abstract

This paper investigates the optimal selection of portfolios for power utility maximizing investors in a financial market where stock returns depend on a hidden Gaussian mean reverting drift process. Information on the drift is obtained from returns and expert opinions in the form of noisy signals about the current state of the drift arriving randomly over time. The arrival dates are modeled as the jump times of a homogeneous Poisson process. Applying Kalman filter techniques we derive estimates of the hidden drift which are described by the conditional mean and covariance of the drift given the observations. The utility maximization problem is solved with dynamic programming methods. We derive the associated dynamic programming equation and study regularization arguments for a rigorous mathematical justification.

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