2010/12/18 by С. В. Цирель, Аскар Акаев, Tsirel, Sergey V. +5
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · #91G80 #Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis #FOS: Economics and business #General Finance (q-fin.GN) #J.1 #Market Dynamics and Volatility #Statistical Finance (q-fin.ST)
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1012.4118
openalex publication_date 2010/12/18 · openalex created_date 2021/02/01 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
This working paper analyzes the gold price dynamics on the basis of\nmethodology developed by Didier Sornette. Our calculations indicate that this\ndynamics is close to the one of the "bubbles" studied by Sornette and that the\nmost probable timing of the "burst of the gold bubble" is April - June 2011.\nThe obtained result has been additionally checked with two different methods.\nFirst of all, we have compared the pattern of changes of the forecasted timing\nof the gold bubble crash with the retrospective changes of forecasts of the oil\nbubble crash (that took place in July 2008). This comparison indicates that the\nperiod when the timing of the crash tended to change is close to the end, and\nthe burst of the gold bubble is the most probable in May or June 2011.\nSecondly, we used the estimates of critical time for the hyperbolic trend (that\nhas been shown in our previous publications to be typical for many\nsocioeconomic processes). Our calculations with this method also indicate May -\nJune 2011 as the most probable time of the burst of the gold bubble. Naturally,\nthis forecast should not be regarded as an exact prediction as this implies the\nstability of the finance policies of the USA, European Union, and China,\nwhereas a significant intervention of giant players (like the Federal Reserve\nSystem, or the Central Bank of China) could affect the course of the exchange\ngame in a rather significant way. We also analyze possible consequences of the\nburst of the "gold bubble".\n