Cracking the Code of Arctic Sea Ice: Why Models Fail to Predict Its Retreat?

2025/11/07 by Ruijian Gou, Gou, Ruijian, Gerrit Lohmann +11
Earth and Planetary Sciences · Environmental Science · #Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics #Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics (physics.ao-ph) #Climate variability and models #FOS: Physical sciences #Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes

paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2511.04961

openalex publication_date 2025/11/07 · openalex created_date 2025/11/11 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28

Abstract

Arctic sea ice is rapidly retreating due to global warming, and emerging evidence suggests that the rate of decline may have been underestimated. A key factor contributing to this underestimation is the coarse resolution of current climate models, which fail to accurately represent eddy floe interactions, climate extremes, and other critical small scale processes. Here, we elucidate the roles of these dynamics in accelerating sea ice melt and emphasize the need for higher resolution models to improve projections of Arctic sea ice.

Citations

• Machine Learning for the Physics of Climate
• Long-term temporal evolution of extreme temperature in a warming Earth

Related

• Arctic sea-ice change: a grand challenge of climate science
• Rapid loss of Arctic sea ice
• Recent Slowdown in the Decline of Arctic Sea Ice Volume Under Increasingly Warm Atmospheric and Oceanic Conditions
• Minimal Arctic Sea Ice Loss in the Last 20 Years, Consistent With Internal Climate Variability
• When Will Arctic Sea Ice Disappear? Projections of Area, Extent, Thickness, and Volume