Assessing the impact of social activity permissiveness on the COVID-19 infection curve of several countries

2021/06/08 by Gerardo L. Febres, Febres, Gerardo L.
Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology · Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Mathematics · #COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts #COVID-19 epidemiological studies #FOS: Biological sciences #Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE) #q-bio.PE

paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2106.04085

17 pages, 6 Figures, 3 Tables, Figures for 38 countries in the Appendix

openalex publication_date 2021/06/08 · arxiv created 2021/06/25 · arxiv updated 2021/06/28 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28

Abstract

This document aims to estimate and describe the effects of the social distancing measures implemented in several countries with the expectancy of controlling the spread of COVID-19. The procedure relies on the classic Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model, which is modified to incorporate a permissiveness index, representing the isolation achieved by the social distancing and the future development of vaccination campaigns and allowing the math model to reproduce more than one infection wave. The adjusted SIR models are used to study the compromise between the economy's reactivation and the resulting infection spreading increase. The document presents a graphical-abacus that describes the convenience of progressively relax social distancing measures while a feasible vaccination campaign develops

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