2014/05/22 by Rickard Nyman, Nyman, Rickard, Paul Ormerod +1
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Physics and Astronomy · #Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis #physics.soc-ph #q-fin.ST
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1405.5695
10 pages, 2 figures
arxiv created 2014/05/22 · arxiv updated 2014/05/23
We describe an exercise of using Big Data to predict the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, a widely used indicator of the state of confidence in the US economy. We carry out the exercise from a pure ex ante perspective. We use the methodology of algorithmic text analysis of an archive of brokers' reports over the period June 2010 through June 2013. The search is directed by the social-psychological theory of agent behaviour, namely conviction narrative theory. We compare one month ahead forecasts generated this way over a 15 month period with the forecasts reported for the consensus predictions of Wall Street economists. The former give much more accurate predictions, getting the direction of change correct on 12 of the 15 occasions compared to only 7 for the consensus predictions. We show that the approach retains significant predictive power even over a four month ahead horizon.