2017/10/30 by Florian Knobloch, Hector Pollitt, Knobloch, Florian +7
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Energy · Environmental Science · #Climate Change Policy and Economics #Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies #Environmental Impact and Sustainability
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1710.11019
Whole-economy scenarios for limiting global warming to 1.5C suggest that\ndirect carbon emissions in the buildings sector should decrease to almost zero\nby 2050, but leave unanswered the question how this could be achieved by\nreal-world policies. We take a modelling-based approach for simulating which\npolicy measures could induce an almost-complete decarbonisation of residential\nheating, the by far largest source of direct emissions in residential\nbuildings. Under which assumptions is it possible, and how long would it take?\nPolicy effectiveness highly depends on behavioural decision- making by\nhouseholds, especially in a context of deep decarbonisation and rapid\ntransformation. We therefore use the non-equilibrium bottom-up model FTT:Heat\nto simulate policies for a transition towards low-carbon heating in a context\nof inertia and bounded rationality, focusing on the uptake of heating\ntechnologies. Results indicate that the near-zero decarbonisation is achievable\nby 2050, but requires substantial policy efforts. Policy mixes are projected to\nbe more effective and robust for driving the market of efficient low-carbon\ntechnologies, compared to the reliance on a carbon tax as the only policy\ninstrument. In combination with subsidies for renewables, near-complete\ndecarbonisation could be achieved with a residential carbon tax of\n50-200Euro/tCO2. The policy-induced technology transition would increase\naverage heating costs faced by households initially, but could also lead to\ncost reductions in most world regions in the medium term. Model projections\nillustrate the uncertainty that is attached to household behaviour for\nprematurely replacing heating systems.\n